公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估方法研究

为有效控制公路桥梁施工安全风险,提出一种可量化的公路桥梁施工安全风险评估方法。先构建我国公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估指标体系,并基于蒙特卡洛抽样技术,运用k-s法对该评估指标体系总体分布进行有效检验。在此基础上,在给定的置信区间下对总体安全风险等级阈值进行界定划分,并通过实例进行验证。研究结果表明:该评估方法具有方便、实用、可靠性强的特点。     

Identifying different types of bulking in an activated sludge system through quantitative image analysis

The present study proposes an image analysis methodology for the identification of different types of disturbances in wastewater treatment activated sludge systems. Up to date, most reported image analysis methodologies have been used in activated sludge processes with the aim of filamentous bulking detection, however, other disturbances could be foreseen in wastewater treatment plants. Such disturbances can lead to fluctuations in the biomass contents, affecting the mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS), and in the sludge settling ability, affecting the sludge volume index (SVI). Therefore, this work focuses on predicting the MLSS and SVI parameters for different types of disturbances affecting an activated sludge system. Four experiments were conducted simulating filamentous bulking, zoogleal or viscous bulking, pinpoint floc formation, and normal operating conditions. Alongside the MLSS and SVI determination, the aggregated and filamentous biomass contents and morphology were studied as well as the biomass Gram and viability status, by means of image analysis.     

岷江上游植被生境适应性空间分异格局的间隙度分析

了解岷江上游不同植被生境适宜性类型在整体和局部上的空间分异格局对植被生境管理和修复具有非常重要的意义。基于岷江上游4类植被生境适宜性类型空间分布图借助分形和贝叶斯理论,建立间隙度指数模型和多水平贝叶斯模型,实现定量表征不同植被生境适宜性类型在整体和局部空间上的聚簇和分异程度。结果表明:1)汶川在Ⅰ~Ⅳ类、Ⅲ类和Ⅳ类生境适宜性下的间隙度指数最大,其对应的空间分异尺度为3 000 m(即为30倍网格边长,网格边长为100 m)、2 900 m、2 800 m,而松潘在Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类型下的间隙度指数最大,其空间分异尺度为3 000 m、2 700 m。2)Ⅰ~Ⅳ类、Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类生境适宜性分别在汶川、松潘和理县的间隙度维数最大,空间格局聚簇性较小,进一步证明空间分异尺度较大,而Ⅲ类和Ⅳ类生境适宜性在茂县的间隙度维数最大。岷江上游植被生境空间分异格局的间隙度分析,可以为研究生境空间格局及其生境管理尺寸在整体和局部上的差异提供必备的条件和依据。     

基于TOPSIS方法的苏州市循环经济发展绩效评价研究

借助绩效评价理论探索分析了循环经济发展评价的指标和方法，并尝试运用多目标决策方法中的嫡值法（Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution，TOPSIS）开展研究试点。通过对苏州市1997～2008年间的循环经济发展绩效进行综合评价，结果表明，10年来苏州市循环经济绩效水平呈U型发展趋势，近年来发展势头良好，但未来在提高低能耗第三产业比例、降低纺织业综合能耗、提高工业电力利用率等方面需要采取更有力的措施；苏州市循环经济发展绩效评价指标体系能够较好地反映该市循环经济发展状况，对于苏南同类城市有一定的借鉴意义；TOPSIS方法较好地避免了主观因素在综合分析过程中的影响，但无法就各评价因子对结果的影响程度、影响途径等进行更深层次的分析，需注意与其他方法相结合。     

基于投影寻踪动态聚类模型的边坡稳定性评价

投影寻踪聚类(PPC)模型在多因素聚类分析中被广泛应用并取得了满意的效果,然而,该模型还存在诸如密度窗宽参数取值经验确定等不足,有待改进提高。本文针对PPC模型存在的问题,把投影寻踪聚类的思想和动态聚类方法结合起来构造投影指标,建立了投影寻踪动态聚类(PPDC)新模型,新模型在整个运算过程中毋需人为给定参数,聚类结果客观、明确。边坡稳定性评价的实际应用表明,PPDC模型不仅切实可行,取得了理想的效果,而且还具有稳定性好、操作简便等特点。PPDC模型为多因素聚类分析提供了一种新方法,具有广阔的应用前景。     

Determinants of CO2 emissions in Brazil and Russia between 1992 and 2011: A decomposition analysis

This paper deals with the decomposition analysis of energy-related CO₂ emissions in Brazil and Russia from 1992 to 2011. The refined Laspeyres index (RLI) method applied and both aggregated and sectoral changes in CO₂ emissions decomposed. Brazil’s and Russia’s economies divided into three economic sectors including agriculture, industry and services. Impact of four main factors, such as economic activity, employment, energy intensity, and carbon intensity in CO₂ emissions changes were analyzed. The aggregated decomposition analysis revealed that Brazil is still far from a decoupling between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions where Russia achieved a substantial decline in carbon emissions mainly due to the improved energy intensity. The empirical findings of sectoral decomposition analysis emphasized that the economic activity was the major CO₂ increasing factor in Brazil’s economic sectors. On the other hand the economic activity effect followed a reducing impact in Russia’s sectoral emissions until 2000. The structural changes between sectors and their impacts on CO₂ emissions were captured by employment effect. Energy intensity and carbon intensity effects underlined that environmental sustainability widely neglected in Brazil and Russia during the study period. The results yield important hints for energy planning and sustainable environment.     

基于层次分析法的人工湿地减排绩效评估指标体系研究

绩效减排有助于发挥减排工程潜力,为水污染减排提供更大空间.结合人工湿地特点,以水污染物减排为主要目标,从减排治污、资源利用、经济和管理指标选择了12个评估指标,并基于层次分析法对各个评价因子的权重进行了确定和判断,构建了人工湿地减排绩效评估指标体系,评估人工湿地减排绩效.通过科学分析人工湿地的减排绩效,优化人工湿地规划、设计和管理水平.     

关于影响易损性分析结果的区域因素研究——以福建为例

以福建省震害快速评估系统为依托,以分析处理现场实际调查数据为基础,提出了主要影响易损性分析结果的四个区域因素及其影响指数值、区域综合指数值,提供了各分区的划分依据、各分区影响指数值的评定标准以及区域综合指数值的计算方法,为合理应用不同地区之间的易损性矩阵或易损性曲线提供了参考依据。     

冬小麦旱灾风险评价的指标体系构建及应用——基于2009年北方春旱野外实地考察的认识

2009年2月初,我国北方冬麦区遭受了数十年未遇的严重干旱。基于野外实地考察,判断本次干旱对冬小麦造成的实际影响比气象统计与遥感监测结果要轻,同时因纬度、地貌类型、微地貌和田间管理水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异。在此基础上,提出应在已有的旱灾致灾指标（气象干旱）基础上,综合考虑地带性、地貌、水库等孕灾环境指标和田间管理水平等灾害适应指标来构建冬小麦旱灾风险的综合评价指标体系。并以北方冬麦区为例,选取SPI、地貌类型、DEM和水库缓冲区等指标得到的旱灾综合风险等级与实际旱情存在较高的吻合性。研究可为高风险区的冬小麦旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和案例支撑。     

伊犁河(中国段)水质模糊综合分析

根据伊犁河 (中国段 )多年水质监测资料 ,运用模糊数学方法分析伊犁河水质模糊综合指数的时空分布特征及其相关关系 ,掌握了伊犁河 (中国段 )水质现状和污染状况。